Market Analysis
Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 05/01/26
Monday 05 January
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | 
|
PMI Manufacturing | 49.7 | 50.0 | ||
| 07:00 | 
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
0.6% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
-0.4% | ||
| 09:00 | 
|
Trade Balance |
|
-1.310Bln EU | ||
| 09:30 |
|
Money Supply M4 | -0.2% | 0.8% | ||
| 15:00 | 
|
Business Inventories Month on Month |
|
0.2% | ||
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
|
48.2 | 48.4 | 47.9 |
Tuesday 06 January
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
0.6% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
-0.4% | ||
| 08:45 |
|
PMI Services | 55.0 | 54.0 | 51.5 | |
| 08:50 | 
|
PMI Services | 50.2 | 50.2 | 50.1 | |
| 08:55 | 
|
PMI Services | 52.6 | 52.6 | 52.7 | |
| 09:00 | 
|
PMI Services | 52.6 | 52.6 | 52.4 | |
| 09:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-1.310Bln EU | ||
| 09:00 |
|
PMI Composite | 51.9 | 51.9 | 51.5 | |
| 09:30 |
|
PMI Services | 52.1 | 52.1 | 51.4 | |
| 13:00 |
|
CPI Final Month on Month | -0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 15:00 |
|
Business Inventories Month on Month |
|
0.2% | ||
| 22:00 |
|
Dallas Fed PCE |
|
1.9% |
Wednesday 07 January
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year |
|
0.9% | 0.9% | +1.1% |
| 07:00 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month |
|
-0.3% | 0.2% | -0.6% |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
0.6% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
-0.4% | ||
| 07:45 |
|
Consumer Confidence |
|
89 | 90 | 90 |
| 08:55 |
|
Unemployment Rate (sa) |
|
6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| 08:55 |
|
Unemployment Change (sa) |
|
1k | 5k | 3k |
| 09:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-1.310Bln EU | ||
| 13:15 |
|
ADP employment report |
|
-32k | 47k | 41k |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
|
52.6 | 52.3 | 54.4 |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing Employment |
|
48.9 | 52.0 | |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders |
|
52.9 | 57.9 | |
| 15:00 |
|
Factory Orders |
|
0.2% | -1.2% | -1.3% |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing Prices Paid |
|
65.4 | 64.3 | |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing Business Activity |
|
54.5 | 56.0 | |
| 15:30 |
|
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -1.934Mln | 0.447Mln | -3.832Mln | |
| 22:00 |
|
Dallas Fed PCE |
|
1.9% |
Thursday 08 January
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 |
|
Consumer Confidence |
|
37.5 | 37.2 | |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
-0.4% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index UK (Halifax) |
|
0.0% | 0.2% | -0.6% |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
0.6% | ||
| 07:45 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-3.920Bln EU | -4.17Bln EU | |
| 09:00 |
|
Unemployment Rate | 6.0% | 5.7% | ||
| 09:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-1.310Bln EU | ||
| 10:00 |
|
Services Sentiment |
|
5.7 | 5.9 | 5.6 |
| 10:00 |
|
Consumer Confidence |
|
-14.6 | -14.6 | -13.1 |
| 10:00 |
|
Industrial Sentiment |
|
-9.3 | -9.1 | -9.0 |
| 10:00 |
|
PPI Month on Month |
|
0.1% | 0.2% | +0.5% |
| 10:00 |
|
PPI Year on Year |
|
-0.5% | -1.9% | -1.7% |
| 10:00 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
|
6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% |
| 10:00 |
|
Business Climate |
|
-0.66 | -0.56 | |
| 10:00 |
|
Economic Sentiment |
|
97.0 | 97.0 | 96.7 |
| 13:30 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-52.8Bln US | -58.9Bln US | -29.4Bln US |
| 13:30 | 
|
Trade Balance |
|
0.15Bln CA | -1.36Bln CA | -0.58Bln CA |
| 22:00 |
|
Dallas Fed PCE |
|
1.9% |
Friday 09 January
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | 
|
CPI Month on Month (China) |
|
-0.1% | 0.1% | +0.2% |
| 01:30 |
|
PPI Year on Year |
|
-2.2% | -2.0% | -1.9% |
| 07:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
16.9Bln EU | 16.5Bln EU | +13.1Bln EU |
| 07:00 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month |
|
1.8% | -0.4% | +0.8% |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
-0.4% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
0.6% | ||
| 07:45 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.1% | |
| 09:00 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month (sa) |
|
0.50% | +0.5% | |
| 09:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-1.310Bln EU | ||
| 09:00 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year (nsa) |
|
1.30% | +1.3% | |
| 10:00 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year |
|
1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% |
| 10:00 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month |
|
0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 13:30 |
|
Housing Starts |
|
1.306Mln | 1.325Mln | 1.246Mln |
| 13:30 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
|
6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% |
| 22:00 |
|
Dallas Fed PCE |
|
1.9% |
Saturday 10 January
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
-0.4% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
0.6% | ||
| 09:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-1.310Bln EU | ||
| 22:00 |
|
Dallas Fed PCE |
|
1.9% |
Monday 12 January
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:30 | 
|
Consumer Sentiment |
|
-9.0% |
Tuesday 13 January
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 |
|
Retail Sales (Office for National Stats) |
|
1.2% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Year on Year (nsa) |
|
2.7% | 2.7% | |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Month on Month (sa) |
|
0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15:00 |
|
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month |
|
0.800Mln |
Wednesday 14 January
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 |
|
PPI Final Demand Month on Month |
|
0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13:30 |
|
PPI Core Year on Year |
|
2.7% | 2.7% | |
| 13:30 |
|
Current Account Balance |
|
-251.3Bln US | -239.9Bln US | |
| 13:30 |
|
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month | 0.4% | 0.3% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
PPI excl Food and Energy MM |
|
0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13:30 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month | 0.0% | 0.4% | ||
| 15:00 |
|
Business Inventories Month on Month |
|
0.2% | ||
| 15:00 |
|
Existing Home Sales |
|
4.13Mln | 4.23Mln | |
| 15:30 |
|
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -3.832Mln |
Thursday 15 January
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
Manufacturing Output Year on Year |
|
-0.8% | -0.3% | |
| 07:00 |
|
Manufacturing Output Month on Month |
|
0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 07:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-22.542Bln GB | -20.050Bln GB | |
| 07:00 |
|
Trade Balance Non-EU |
|
-10.255Bln GB | ||
| 07:00 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month |
|
1.1% | 0.0% | |
| 07:00 |
|
Industrial Production Year on Year |
|
-0.8% | -0.8% | |
| 09:00 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month (sa) |
|
-1.0% | 0.5% | |
| 09:00 |
|
Industrial Production Year on Year (wda) |
|
-0.3% | ||
| 10:00 |
|
Industrial Production Year on Year |
|
2.0% | 1.9% | |
| 10:00 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month | 0.8% | -0.1% | ||
| 10:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
18.4Bln EU | ||
| 13:15 |
|
House Starts Annualized |
|
254.1k | 260.0k | |
| 13:30 |
|
Philadelphia Fed Business Index |
|
-10.2 | -2.0 |
Friday 16 January
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
CPI Final Year on Year |
|
1.8% | 1.8% | |
| 09:00 |
|
CPI Final Year on Year | 1.2% | 1.2% | ||
| 09:00 |
|
CPI Final Month on Month | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||
| 14:15 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month |
|
0.2% | 0.1% |
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